New El Niño Said to be Bigger
Than ’97-’98

According to scientific computer models analyzing weather patterns over the Pacific, the current El Niño now shaping up may be the strongest in recorded history. The characteristic warmer than normal seawater is spreading and deepening – especially off the coast of Peru (4C warmer) and west of Vancouver and Seattle (3C warmer). It is rivaling and may surpass the 1997-1998 El Niño, which swept California up for months in floods, mudslides, and heavy snowfall. The computer models were provided by the National Weather Service’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble. One model suggest a greater than 90% chance of a strong El Niño, and a greater than 60% chance of the strongest El Niño on record. Scientists caution that these statistics come from only one of many models and it is too early to decide which model is most reliable.

The El Niño weather pattern could be the most powerful on record, but federal forecasters are warning the effects are never certain. The effect begins with warmer water in the far western Pacific. Currents carry it eastward and when westerly trade currents are not strong the El Niño weather pattern crosses the Pacific, the United States and can effect weather around the world.

Heavier rainfall in California can mean a warmer winter in Washington state and milder winters in the northeast U.S. Scientists are emphasizing that the information on El Niño is a small sample set in 60 years and therefore it is difficult to predict outcomes.