Codfish Stock Report Sparks Fear
in Fishery

by Joey Cresta

A recent assessment of Gulf of Maine cod stock could have "devastating" implications for independent groundfishermen in New Hampshire.

In early December, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) called for a special meeting at the Sheraton Harborside hotel. Industry leaders will meet with scientists to discuss the implications of a 2011 preliminary assessment that shows the cod stock was much smaller in 2008 than initially believed.

Maggie Mooney-Seus, public affairs officer for the NMFS northeast regional office, said the preliminary assessment produced some alarming results. It indicates that in 2010, cod stock was about 20 percent of its fully rebuilt size and fishing rates were nearly five times the overfishing level. “The stock is overfished, and overfishing is occurring,” she said.

 The 2011 preliminary assessment is vastly different from the 2008 assessment, which suggested the spawning stock biomass—the fish able to reproduce—in 2007 was around 74.9 million pounds and that the stock was overfished, but overfishing was not occurring. It appears from the new assessment that spawning stock biomass is closer to 26.5 million pounds, with a total biomass around 46.3 million pounds, she said.

“At this point, I don’t know what the management ramifications are going to be,” she said. “The preliminary results are pretty dramatic.”

Mooney-Seus said the goal is to bring the cod stock to a sustainable level that is large enough for the fish population to withstand the amount of fishing that takes place.

“The data is showing us that the amount of fishing effort is five times what we consider sustainable,” she said.

The assessment has changed because of improvements to the model used to estimate stock size and growth, as well as the addition of several more years of data from state and federal surveys, independent scientific studies, and fishery catches, she said.

Inshore fishermen would be most severely affected by any tightening of cod catch limits. Larger vessels would be able to continue to catch cod on George’s Bank, but the restrictions would harm small-boat fishermen, perhaps to a dire extent, said several seacoast industry insiders.

“It’s going to be devastating to the fishermen,” said Rich Pettigrew, owner of Seaport Fish, who runs a retail store in Rye and supplies many restaurants in the area. “That is their big money fish.”

He said fishermen catching pollock or other fish would also be affected because they would have to be wary about catching stray cod.

“They’re going to have to worry about where they fish. It’s going to trickle the whole way down,” he said. “These guys are struggling enough already. It’s going to put the majority of them out of the business. It could be devastating."

Erik Anderson, a Portsmouth fisherman and president of the N.H. Commercial Fishermen’s Association, said cod is just a component of some fishermen’s catch, but for others, “it’s a large percentage of their annual catch.”

If the preliminary projections stand up to a peer review—the results of which will not be released until next month—more and more boats will be seen tied to docks, Anderson said.
The groundfish fleet continues to dwindle as it is, Anderson added. He estimates fewer than 30 local vessels are still tied to the groundfish fishery. He said fishermen are nervous, but also confused about the reliability of the assessment.

David Goethel of Hampton is a member of the New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC). He said he will raise plenty of questions about the 2011 preliminary assessment at today’s meeting, which could amount to an “epic clash over science.”

“If you believe the information that was presented, then the outcome is that we’re essentially at the same point we were at in 1996, which is in very severe shape,” he said. “In 1996, I would agree we were in severe shape. You had to work to catch a codfish. Now, you have to work not to catch a codfish.”

Goethel said there is a “huge disconnect” between the 2011 study and what commercial fishermen are seeing out on the water. He said he has a 10-page list of qualms with the 2011 preliminary assessment and said its results should be thrown out because too many factors were not considered. With a biology background and a son training to be a stock assessment scientist, Goethel said, “My response is, ‘This isn’t correct.’”

Eric Schwaab, assistant administrator for the NMFS, said he understands some of the skepticism about the results and noted that “none of this is certain or cause for action until, at a minimum, we have that peer review.”

Nonetheless, it is in everyone’s best interest to meet now to discuss the potential ramifications and what steps might need to be taken to address the issue, Schwaab said.

“A lot of people see these assessments as NOAA products, and while we’re a big part of their production, there are a lot of other academic institutions and industry scientists and state agency scientists who participate in or contribute data to the assessment,” he said.

Schwaab said the cod fishery has “been through a lot” of steps to limit overfishing and help rebuild the stock. If the 2011 preliminary assessment is correct, fishing at the current pace would be “problematic,” he said.

“We were in a position where we were beginning to see some signs of progress. These numbers certainly run counter to that,” he said. “Rather than wait until the final peer review results are in, we wanted to initiate some discussions with the fishermen now.”

Reprinted with permission from the Portsmouth Herald
jcresta@seacoastonline.com