DRAMATIC COD DECLINE BODES ILL FOR FISHERMEN
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A New England fisherman grapples up a cod during an era when the fish was plentiful. The vintage photo – snapped by Chatham, Mass., fisherman Fred Bennett – was included in “Cod: The Fish That Made New England,” a video issued by the Pew Environment Group earlier this year to air the thoughts of fishermen who have witnessed the decline of the fishery.

 

The vessels most likely affected will be smaller vessels that fish nearshore in the Western Gulf of Maine, NMFS said.

In November 2011, the Gulf of Maine cod stock assessment underwent a peer review by a team of independent scientists at the 53rd Stock Assessment Workshop at the Northeast Fisheries Science Center in Woods Hole, Mass. Final feedback from the peer review process is expected this month, said NMFS.

But given the preliminary results and the implications for groundfish fishermen and communities across the region, NMFS convened a working group consisting of New England Fisheries Management Council members and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration staff “to explore potential management options for reducing disruption to the fishery while responding to the new assessment,” according to the NMFS release.

The working group met with members of the fishing community, environmentalists, scientists and other interested parties on Dec. 9 in Portsmouth, N.H., to discuss preliminary findings and potential management responses.

According to NMFS, the Gulf of Maine cod stock “appears to be at a very low biomass, which will likely affect harvests of other groundfish stocks from the nearshore Gulf of Maine.”

NMFS said that management measures have not yet been formulated, “but could include reductions in other fishing opportunities, including recreational catches.”

NMFS said the goal set by federal fishery managers of rebuilding the stock by 2014 will not be possible. Under the best conditions, NMFS said, it could get there by around 2018 and under worst, it will be later than 2020.

Other findings, as detailed by NMFS:

• From 2007 onward, recruitment (the number of fish born each year) has been below the long- term (1982-2010) average.

• There are few fish older than age 9, in a stock with potential lifespan of roughly 20 years.

• Fish weights-at-age in recent years are generally lower for older fish (ages greater than 5) than those in the early 2000 period.

• Recreational catches (both landings and discards) have increased substantially over the last 15 years. Over the past 10 years, recreational catches have exceeded 30 percent of the total catch of Gulf of Maine cod.

• As stock abundance has decreased over time, the distribution of the stock has contracted to a much smaller area compared to its distribution in the 1970s.

• The fishery has also undergone a general contraction over the past 20 years and is now operating primarily in the western Gulf of Maine in the same area now occupied by the contracted stock. Because of this contraction, catch per unit of effort in the fishery has remained high, despite a large decline in overall stock abundance.

NMFS said the assessment’s findings are different from those projected in 2008, when Gulf of Maine cod was last assessed. The findings from the 2008 assessment, NMFS said, “indicated that the stock was rebuilding and prospects were good for full recovery by 2014. Annual catch targets and allowable catch limits were set accordingly.”

However, NMFS said, the “2011 draft assessment indicates that the stock was much smaller in 2007 than the 2008 assessment indicated, that it was not rebuilding on schedule at that time, and that in 2010 the stock was about 20 percent of its fully-rebuilt size and fishing rates were nearly five times the overfishing level.”

According to NMFS, an explanation of why the results are so different from expectation cannot be characterized in a single “sound bite.” For starters, NMFS said, the “2011 assessment is more robust than that of 2008 because it does a better job of dealing with uncertainty in data—for example, adjusting for anomalously high survey tows. Past estimates of recruitment (incoming young fish) have been highly uncertain in past assessments, in part because of this kind of uncertainty.”

Other differences, NMFS said, included an overly optimistic assessment of the 2005 year class, an increase in detailed data on catch and discards through 2011, and better biological information about the age and weight of fish that were caught by commercial, recreational, and scientific survey vessels; that is, revised weights at age showed fish in recent year classes are lighter-than-average at younger ages.

Calling the decline in the stock size for Gulf of Maine cod “dramatic,” NMFS chief Eric Schwaab and NEFMC chairman Rip Cunningham, in a joint statement issued on Dec. 9, said that NOAA and NEFMC would “move forward with developing management measures for the 2012 fishing year. These emerging data present an unusual set of circumstances, which may require out of the ordinary solutions, which we are committed to exploring. ”

According to a presentation by Northeast Fisheries Science Center stock assessment biologist Chris Legault, the Gulf of Maine cod stock cannot rebuild by 2014 even if fishing mortality is zero.

Preliminary proposals presented at the meeting by NEFMC staff Tom Nies included a 90 percent reduction in catch limits for fishing year 2012. Nies said his analysis shows that a 90 percent reduction will cut groundfish revenues by 25 percent, relative to revenues earned in 2010.

By homeport state, New Hampshire groundfish revenues would be reduced by 91 percent, Maine groundfish revenues would be reduced by 54 percent, and Massachusetts groundfish revenues would be reduced by 21 percent, according to Nies’ presentation.

According to Nies, vessels in the 30-foot to 50-foot range would be most affected under this management option. Impacts on the recreational groundfish fishery would be similar, Nies said. According to Nies, “over 60 percent of party/charter vessels in the Gulf of Maine earn nearly all of their revenue from groundfish trips, and cod is a major portion of their catches.”

Other management options discussed at the working group meeting included a restart or extension of the rebuilding timeline beyond the 2014 deadline to provide for higher catches in 2012; various methods to balance fishing effort with stock size; close the GOM broad stock area to all groundfish fishing and declare a fishery disaster.

Updated information can be found at nero.noaa.gov/nero/hotnews/gomcod/.