12-year study, which registered the expansion of the resource, has shown a decline since 1995.
"I fought the feds when they said the stock was declining," said Steneck, "but we now have three independent signals and they're all pointed in the same direction. I wish I was wrong."
Wahle's study simply stated what his data indicated. "After a string of banner years for larval production from 1989 to 1994, we saw this decline begin around 1995, and it has continued in Maine and Rhode Island," he said. "In Rhode Island, where the lobsters grow faster and one would expect the signal to show sooner, they're already seeing a reduction in landings, and in their trawl surveys."
The 40 percent decline figure for Pen Bay attracted a great deal of attention, but Wahle notes that the decline in larval settlement is much less severe in other areas. Some places, such as the waters off York County, and around Jonesport, have shown small increases in settlement. "It should not surprise anyone if landings drop," Wahle said, but noted that there was no way to tell whether the decline would be significant. "We don't know how these numbers will translate into landings," he said.
David Cousens, president of the Maine Lobstermen's Association, believes that the predicted drop in landings is likely. "Twenty million pounds is the 100-year average, and we've been artificially high for the last decade," he said.
But he believes the industry will survive. "I'm not panicking. As long as we protect our broodstock, we'll be all right. When conditions improve the lobsters will come back."
Although Cousens considers his own future, and that of many of his fellow lobstermen, to be secure, he has his doubts about those in the industry who have overcapitalized. "There are a lot of young guys out there who got into this fishery in the last decade. They've never seen anything different and they're in for a rude awakening." According to Steve Robbins III, executive director of the Down East Lobstermen's Association, the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. "When scientists come out with these press releases, and sound bites, it doesn't connect with the fact that the lobster population has tripled in recent years," he said.
Robbins pointed out that prior to the state scientists' press release, the industry was already working on measures designed to allow increased egg production. Amendment 3 to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission's (ASMFC), lobster management plan, which regulates the fishery in federal waters, calls for increasing egg production to a level equal to 10% of that of a virgin stock, by the year 2008.
The ASMFC's Lobster Conservation Management Team for Area 1, the inshore waters of the Gulf of Maine, is considering management measures to protect the broodstock, including reducing the maximum size limit for legal lobsters. But Robbins believes Maine has already done its share for lobster conservation, and does not think much more can be done.
But efforts to protect brood stock may not help in the immediate future. "A lot of people think egg production drives the fishery," said Steneck. "But that is not necessarily the case; lots of eggs doesn't mean lots of babies." "Egg production has been at record levels in recent years," said Rick Wahle. "But there seems to be some sort of disconnect between hatch and settlement."
Wahle conducted the larval settlement study in conjunction with Lew Incza's study of larvae in the water column, until Incza lost funding for his project. But using a study conducted off Seabrook, New Hampshire and data from Wahle's lobster settlement studies in Rhode Island, the scientists have identified a regional trend.
"We've seen drops in larvae in the water column and a decrease in settlement over a wide area," said Wahle, who conducts his research in mid-coast Maine, and Rhode Island. "We don't know if the larvae are being swept offshore by changing currents, or just not surviving."
Steneck indicated that it seemed some ecological shift was creating unfavorable conditions for larval settlement. "Because the signals suggest a broad geographic decline, we think this could be something oceanographic," he said. There may be little anyone can do to offset the apparent decline in settlement, claim the scientists. "Unfortunately we can not manage the environment," said Steneck.

Counting on Lobsters?
"This is something that's out of our hands," said David Cousens, pointing to environmental factors that control the expansion and contraction of the lobster population. "We've seen the lobsters come back on the mud bottom, and we knew that when the groundfish came back the lobsters would move back off the mud. It may be that the hard bottom can only support 20 million pounds." If so, Cousens contends that fishermen will be leaving the lobster industry.
According to Cousins the fishermen who pay down their debts and prepare for hard times will survive. "But 75, maybe 80 percent of the fishermen out there don't believe it can happen," he said. "They're spending like they're going to gross $200,000 every year, and when the $75,000 year comes along they're going to lose everything." He believes that three bad years would cut participation in the fishery by half.
The question neither Cousens nor anyone else can answer is, where that effort will go. Many coastal communities now rely heavily on the lobster resource, and a drop in landings would leave them scrambling to fill the gap. Cousens maintains that as long as the economy remains strong, fishermen can find work on shore. But a significant reduction in landings will be felt throughout the community. "The local economy is going to take a hit," he said.
How big a hit remains uncertain. "I don't think anyone should panic, but it is something people should be aware of," said Jen Bubar, of the Stonington Fisheries Alliance. Bubar's husband, Rick, lobsters out of Stonington, as do many other members of her family. "Over 50 percent of the population depends on the fisheries here," she said.
Five hundred and five lobstermen, who employ another 300 sternmen, fish out of Stonington and the town of Deer Isle, the two fishing communities on the island of Deer Isle. They accounted for a significant share of Hancock County's $37 million worth of landings in 1999. If those landings slip, islanders know it will affect their towns.
"The town of Stonington writes out a check for over $130,000 every month to pay for the school," says Stonington town clerk, Kathleen Billings. "And Deer Isle pays out something like $160,000. Education makes up about 90 percent of our town budgets." She noted that revenues generated by the fishing industry accounted for a major share of those budgets. "If landings drop the sternmen will feel it first," Billings speculated. She added that any slide back toward historic landing levels would send a shock wave through the entire community.
"The guys here don't have much to fall back on," she said, pointing out that limitations of the island's waste disposal systems make it hard for other industries to locate there. "And they can't get into [other fisheries]." Regulations and limited stocks have left inshore fishermen unable to shift in and out of various fisheries. In recent years, they have concentrated their capital in the only growth industry open to them Ð lobstering. In the last five years Maine's other fisheries have paled compared to lobstering, which now accounts for almost 70 percent of the value of Maine's seafood landings Ð up from 41 percent in 1987.
"It's pretty scary to have become so dependent on one fishery," said Bubar. "What worries us most is how the young guys will make out if things change." Bubar speculated that many fishermen who had only ever seen the good times, and spent accordingly, might have trouble supporting their debt loads. "A twenty percent drop would make things shaky here," she said.
Steve Robbins III prefers to look on the best side of the science. "Settlement is down in some areas and indicates a potential for decline," said Robbins. "But they only survey small areas, and even the scientists admit there is a need for more widespread information."
Noting that studies had shown small settlement increases around Jonesport and in York County, Robbins wondered if the population might surprise everyone by continuing to expand.