While catch rates per boat appear to be increasing and Maine Department of Marine Resources records show a rise in groundfish landings from 25 million pounds in 1998 to 28 million in 2000, Portland-based processor Jerry Knecht agrees with MacIntyre that the number of fish coming across the floor of the fish exchange has remained relatively constant. "Overall the price of protein is going down. What's happening with groundfish prices is that there's a glut of shrimp, there's a glut of salmon, there's a glut of catfish. There's more production out there than the market can absorb and that's driving the price of all seafood down. For the first time in a long long time we're on a par with chicken," says Knecht.
John Norton, owner of Cozy Harbor Seafood, one of five major processors in Portland, believes the problem is not processing capacity. "Nobody's running double shifts yet," he says. He agrees with Knecht that the world market is saturated with aquaculture products. In addition, Norton contends that the New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC), has deterred potential investors in the groundfish industry, be they harvesters, buyers, or processors. "Who is going to invest in promoting this product? The council is all over the board on their decisions," says Norton, "They've sent the signal: 'stay away from this industry, we're crazy.'"
Norton sees the actions of the Council as hampering the in-dustry's ability to rebuild along with fish stocks. "Here we have stocks rebuilding, and they want to cut landings again," he says, wondering how processors can expand their markets with a diminishing and erratic supply of groundfish. He notes that high quality farmed salmon, sell for $3.99 a pound, and are available throughout the year. "Then you fly this by," he says of wild caught seafood. "I have a product, I can get it to you most of the time, but sometimes I can't. I'll do the best I can; the price should be around here, but it may go up and down, we'll try to keep it consistent; we'll maintain the highest quality, but that varies depending on the time of year and other factors. If you're a supermarket buyer which are you going to choose?"
In spite of an obligation to consider the socio-economic impactsof its recommendations, the NEFMC has its priorities. "We're into conserving the fish," says Paul Howard, executive director of the NEFMC. He expects the rebuilt groundfish stocks to be producing 100,000 metric tons of product on an annual basis, but he has no idea where the those fish will go or for what price. "It's up to the industry to develop its own markets," he says.
In order to meet the rebuilding targets specified in Amendment 7 to the Multispecies Fishery Management Plan, the Council's Multi-species Monitoring Committee (MSMC) has recommended a 63 percent reduction in fishing mortality for Gulf of Maine cod, and a 20 percent reduction for Georges Bank cod.
Norton foresees a tough battle to reclaim markets. "We'll need to buy them back," he says, meaning lower prices. "But it will take more than price to get supermarkets to take a risk on fresh seafood." Norton wants to see a consistent supply, and a steady price. He also wants consistent quality. "How do we get there?" he asks. He considers the complicated management system that continues to cut landings, to be headed in the wrong direction. "We ought to be opening this up. This way is just nuts. Fishermen are focused on days at sea, they don't see the damage that's being done to the markets."
Pendleton agrees with Norton on the need for consistency and is frustrated with management proposals that seem to create havoc. For instance, in order to reduce the number of cod discards, one alternative in the upcoming framework adjustment, called for days-at-sea used during May through July to be counted at a 2:1 rate.
That recommendation has Pen-dleton incensed. "Who's going to land fish in those months?" he asks. "We need a system that produces a moderate supply of fish on regular basis," he says, noting that fishermen's behavior: reactions to regulations, price, weather, and other factors, often leads to cycles of abundance and scarcity in the marketplace.
"As it is now, everyone tries to land on Sunday to get the good price. Then as the week wears on and the market tries to absorb those fish, you see the price go down." Pendleton claims he would rather see a steady supply at a reasonable price than shoot for the big money on particular days of the week and lose on others. Norton himself is limiting the risks he is willing to take on groundfish. "I'm putting together a first quarter list of products for the supermarkets we supply, and I have to tell you groundfish is not a significant share. You can't make advance bookings on something that changes day by day."
Norton and others, including vessel owner, Bernard Raynes, suggest shrimp management as a clear cut case where they feel regulators wrecked the infrastructure and market of a fishery.
"I don't think we'll even rig up this year," Raynes says of the 25-day season set for this year. "The only ones who'll be able to buy are the peddlers." "It will be at least five years before anyone even thinks of investing in the shrimp fishery again," says Norton, and he feels the same mistakes are being made with groundfish. According to Steve Correia, chair of the MSMC, "When Amendment 13 comes into effect, it will require even greater reductions in fishing mortality." As stocks rebound however, Correia expects fishermen to see increasing landings, even at lower rates of exploitation. Extrapolating from the current projections, Correia forecasts that Gulf of Maine cod landings for 2009 could be around 16,000 metric tons (mt), over 3 times last year's total landings of 5,000 mt. "But in order to get to those yields, fishermen are going to have to take a short-term hit," says Correia.
Looking at the alternatives in upcoming Framework Adjustment 36, that short-term hit could range from a 10-20 percent reduction of days-at-sea, to exclusion of charter/recreational boats from the Western Gulf of Maine closed area, and increased mesh sizes on trawls and gillnets.
But for many fishermen who have sat out of the fishery for conservation reasons, the hit could be long-term. When Amendment 13 takes effect it will attempt to deal with the issue of latent effort. "We have 160,000 days allocated and only 57,000 used," says Correia. "If that other effort was ever utilized it would devastate the fishery." The National Marine Fisheries Service hopes to buy back some $10 million dollars worth of groundfish permits, and most observers agree that it will come from the small boat fleet. "We're being driven down the road to consolidation," says Pendleton. "The people who did the conservation work will be penalized."
By shrinking the fleet, and continually changing the measures that effect harvest rates some observers note that, intentionally or not, regulators are shifting much of the fresh fish market away from wild harvesters, and leaving it open to the aquaculture industry. Pat Fiorelli of the NEFMC scoffs at that notion.
"When there's money to be made, people will fill those niches," says Fiorelli. "Domestic demand is high and as the fish come back so will the market," she adds, noting that landings used to be much higher and the market absorbed them. Correia does not see any agenda taking precedence. "This is a huge balancing act to serve the interests of all the players," he says. "It's a series of political compromises aimed at minimizing the damage to all groups."
In Rockland, and other towns that once thrived on the ground-fishing industry, the damage has been done. For the handful of commercial boats like the Irene Alton, still unloading at the Rockland fish pier, the main concern is to survive the "short-term" hits. "I guess we'll just keep going out and catch what we can, for as long as we can," says Bernard Raynes.