FROM THE CROWE’S NEST

Another End of The World

The 50%-plus cut in the allowed herring harvest proposed by the National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) is another NMFS action yielding cries of disaster and disbelief.

It is another symptom of top down disconnected fisheries management policy that disregards the stakeholders. It is the policy criticized by Elinor Olstrom, who on October 12, 2009 won the Nobel Peace Prize for her research on public resource management – in particular the “commons.” Ostrom has said, "One of the absolutely key, most important variables as to whether or not a forest survives and continues is whether local people monitor each other and its use — not officials, locals."

The NMFS trawl survey that the SSC analyzed is done every three years. Waiting three years for another survey is enough to put the lobster industry and the herring fleet out of business.

The herring fleet has just gone through a round of investments in re-rigging some mid-water trawlers with seining gear. Lobstermen will face skyrocketing bait prices.

The research results that come out of this kind of fisheries science is by no means perfect. The scientists know that. The cherry picking of data for political purposes led to a public outcry for change in 2005. The new Magnuson Stevens Act demands that the science be peer reviewed, and otherwise not questioned. Does that make the science more accurate or just the concentration of power greater? Depending on how the seats are arranged, peer review could be a bit like judging the emperor’s new clothes.

SSC scientists likened the herring data they assessed to what was seen just before cod stocks collapsed. If there is an emergency being declared for the herring stocks that were in great shape last year, it should also be declared for the lobster and herring industries, and a verifying emergency re-assessment done.

The NMFS trawl survey and the SSC’s assessment will not be tossed out, but decisions that could effectively shut down these fishing industries should be. Doing so could avert a disaster that may not have had to happen in the first place.

Getting politics out of resource management was and remains necessary. But, did anyone in management consider the need for a Plan B, in the event computer models suddenly predict yet another end of the world scenario.